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This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325661
Euro Area member states have agreed to introduce a structural budget balance target to their national legislation (Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance). However, there exists no commonly agreed methodology to calculate this macroeconomic indicator. This report presents the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037631
The Benini distribution is a lognormal-like distribution generalizing the Pareto distribution. Like the Pareto and the lognormal distributions it was originally proposed for modeling economic size distributions, notably the size distribution of personal income. This paper explores a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390688
Many structural econometric models include latent variables on whose probability distributions one may wish to place minimal restrictions. Leading examples in panel data models are individual-specific variables sometimes treated as "fixed effects" and, in dynamic models, initial conditions. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480416
This Policy Brief introduces the Gini Trade Index (GTI) as a new trade synthetic key performance indicator capable of capturing the different distribution of trade values across firm characteristics and across countries. The new indicator replicates the well-known features of the traditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014560170
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011288126
This paper analyses long-term fiscal sustainability with a model which incorporates a number of feedback effects. When fiscal policy responds to ensure long-term sustainability, these feedback effects can potentially modify the intended outcomes by either enhancing or dampening the results of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115701
To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605061
New Zealand's fiscal outlook deteriorated following the Global Financial Crisis, and in late 2008 fiscal projections showed net government debt in New Zealand increasing from 5% of GDP to around 40% within 10 years, mostly reflecting permanently lower expectations for future tax revenue. These...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115711
In this paper we analyze how the availability of credit influences the relationship between government size as a proxy for fiscal stabilization policy and the amplitude of business cycle fluctuations in a sample of advanced OECD countries. Interpreting relatively low loan-tovalue ratios as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294478