We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a...

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...

We analyze the effectiveness of intervention in the European Monetary System by using daily data on the DEM-intervention activity of six European central banks, covering the period from August 1993 to April 1998. To test for the influence of intervention we apply EGARCH models. To allow for...

In this paper, we present stylized facts of exchange rate and intervention behavior in the Exchange Rate Mechanism I (ERM I), in particular in light of the recent literature on multilateral target zone models. We estimate bilateral exchange rate distributions of the maximum spot rate deviations...

The crises suffered in 1992/93 by the old EMS with its narrow exchange rate bands were largely due to the fact that the central banks' unlimited spot intervention obligations held little credibility for speculators. How can a credible exchange rate guarantee be achieved by improving the...

The system of so-called Divergence Indicators in the European Monetary System puts pressure on the monetary authorities to consult before the intervention points are reached in the foreign exchange markets. Under integration aspects this arrangement marks an advance, but it also carries risks...

The European Monetary System (EMS) has now been in operation for about one year. Dr. Burgard explains the main elements of the system and the problems still awaiting solution.

The European Monetary System (EMS) has, so far, proved to be a success. The regional approach to the promotion of monetary stability, in terms of both more predictable exchange rates and a reduction in inflation, is the only option available to Europe as attempts to create a new international...

A very lively debate has now developed about the future of European monetary policy. Dr. Peter Bofinger analyses the arguments for and against the promotion of the ECU as a parallel currency.