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United We Vote
Eguia, Jon X. - 2006
This paper studies the advantages that a coalition of agents obtains by forming a voting bloc to pool their votes and cast them all together. We identify the necessary and sufficient conditions for an agent to benefit from the formation of the voting bloc, both if the agent is a member of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312299
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Majority relation and median representative ordering
Demange, Gabrielle - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 1/2, pp. 95-109
This paper presents results on the transitivity of the majority relation and the existence of a median representative ordering. Building on the notion of intermediate preferences indexed by a median graph, the analysis extends well-known results obtained when the underlying graph is a line. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317116
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Forecast combination based on multiple encompassing tests in a macroeconomic DSGE system
Costantini, Mauro; Gunter, Ulrich; Kunst, Robert M. - 2010
We use data generated by a macroeconomic DSGE model to study the relative benefits of forecast combinations based on … forecast-encompassing tests relative to simple uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. Assumed rival models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294019
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Combination of forecast methods using encompassing tests: An algorithm-based procedure
Costantini, Mauro; Pappalardo, Carmine - 2008
This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combining methods. Given the availability of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294027
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Combined Forecasts from Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Models
Terui, N.; van Dijk, Herman K. - 2000
Combined forecasts from a linear and a nonlinear model areinvestigated for timeseries with possibly nonlinear characteristics. The forecasts arecombined by aconstant coefficient regression method as well as a time varyingmethod. Thetime varying method allows for a locally (non)linear model....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324396
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Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts
den Butter, Frank A.G.; Jansen, Pieter W. - 2008
This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series … is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where a random walk forecast acts as benchmark. It is found that for … approaches do not outperform the random walk, or a somewhat more sophisticated time series model, on a 3 month forecast horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325714
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Moderating political extremism: single round vs runoff elections under plurality rule
Bordignon, Massimo; Tabellini, Guido - 2009
equilibrium policy is smaller, because their bargaining power is reduced compared to a single ballot election. The predictions on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264599
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Information aggregation in Poisson-elections
Ekmekci, Mehmet; Lauermann, Stephan - 2021
The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012603361
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Corporate campaign contributions as a predictor for abnormal stock returns after presidential elections
Huber, Jürgen; Kirchler, Michael - 2008
in the United States. We look at the presidential level and analyze contributions by companies before an election and … abnormal positive post-election returns with (i) a higher percentage of contributions given to the eventual winner and (ii … to (i) the percentage of contributions given to the winner in a presidential election and (ii) the total contribution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293413
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Multicandidate elections: Aggregate uncertainty in the laboratory
Bouton, Laurent; Castanheira, Micael; Llorente-Saguer, Aniol - 2015
uncertainty in multicandidate elections. Adopting a theory-based experimental approach, we explore whether aggregate uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460785