Showing 1 - 10 of 15,229
In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282865
We use data generated by a macroeconomic DSGE model to study the relative benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests relative to simple uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. Assumed rival models are four linear autoregressive specifications, one of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294019
wide range of forecasting models for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted …, 1998) is developed. First, forecasting models are ranked according to a measure of predictive accuracy (RMSFE) and, in a … robustness of this procedure, an empirical application to Italian monthly industrial production using ISAE short-term forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294027
through the comparison of simultaneous and sequential estimation, modelling tail credit risk using transition matrices … underwriters and issuing firms in the Japanese corporate bond market, stochastic life table forecasting: a time-simultaneous fan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326266
series has been use for the forecasting the shock occurring in the economic data series. Objective and Subjective technique …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011938290
. To this aim, a hierarchical procedure based on an encompassing test is developed. Firstly, forecasting models are ranked … Economic Analyses) short-term forecasting models for monthly industrial production in Italy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293990
We investigate whether and to what extent multiple encompassing tests may help determine weights for forecast averaging in a standard vector autoregressive setting. To this end we consider a new test-based procedure, which assigns non-zero weights to candidate models that add information not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294025
This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future house prices in Finland. Compared to a simple benchmark model, Google searches improve the prediction of the present house price index by 7.5 % measured by mean absolute error. In addition,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037683
We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293709
Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291802