The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output...

When comparing methods for classification, often the rating relies on their prediction accuracy alone. One reason for this is that this is the aspect that can be most easily measured. Yet, often one wants to learn more about the problem than only how to predict. The interpretation of the...

This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combining methods. Given the availability of a wide range of forecasting models for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted set of models. To this aim, an algorithm procedure based...

Mit den diesjährigen Trägern des Nobelpreises für Wirtschaft, Robert. F. Engle und Clive W.J. Granger, werden zwei Vertreter der Zeitreihenökonometrie geehrt. Wie hat sich durch ihr Werk die statistische Analyse ökonomischer Zeitreihen verändert? Wie wird heute Volatilität auf...

Frühindikatoren sind ein wichtiges Hilfsmittel für die Konjunkturdiagnose und für das Erkennen von Wendepunkten. Derzeit werden häufig Indikatoren verwendet, die aus Umfrageergebnissen abgeleitet werden. Der hier vorgestellte Frühindikator basiert dagegen auf einem multivariaten...

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated datafor the Euro-zone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparisondemonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output...

This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combination. Given the availability of a wide range of forecasts for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted set of models. To this aim, a hierarchical procedure based on an...

This paper illustrates the Support Vector Method for the classification problem with two and more classes. In particular, the multi-class classification Support Vector Method of Weston and Watkins (1998) is correctly formulated as a quadratic optimization problem. Then, the method is applied to...

This paper presents the software framework JStatCom which is geared towards the development of rich GUI clients for numerical procedures. The concept is to solve all recurring tasks with the help of reusable Java components. Optionally, one can delegate the execution of special numerical...

This paper presents computationally simple estimators for the index coefficients in a binary choice model with a binary endogenous regressor without relying on distributional assumptions or on large support conditions and yields root-n consistent and asymptotically normal estimators. We develop...