This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …

Adam Smith's ideas about the invisible hand, was a major contribution to an ongoing tradition in monetary theory in whose …

career as an academic, focusing on growth theory and Belgian and European growth patterns in the post-war period. His work is … eclectic approach towards economics, blending economic theory and empirical data beautifully to elucidate crucial policy …

catastrophic event even if its probability is negligibly small. With low degrees of risk aversion, however the catastrophic risk …Expected Utility theory is not only applied to individual choices but also to ethical decisions, e.g. in cost … EU theory is able to deal with 'catastrophic risks', i.e. risks of high, but very unlikely losses, in an ethically …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by … Cost of Carbon did not go far enough into the tail of low-probability, high-impact scenarios, and, via its approach to …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by … Cost of Carbon did not go far enough into the tail of low-probability, high-impact scenarios, and, via its approach to …

theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace …In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic … probability. In 1980s, the potential surprise is axiomatized by Katzner as Kolmogorov-styled measure defined on the &#x1d70e …

The question of how to deal with uncertainty in environmental decision-making is cur-rently attracting considerable … uncertainty becomes particularly apparent in the field of environmental policy because environmental prob-lems are regarded as … the challenge to develop scientific decision support methods that are capable of dealing with uncertainty in a systematic …

economics, a distinction is often made between quantifiable uncertainty (risk) and un-quantifiable uncertainty (Knight …Making decisions under uncertainty is at the core of human decision-making, particularly economic decision-making. In …, Uncertainty and Profit, 1921). However, this distinction is often ignored by, in effect, the quantification of unquantifiable …

economy, this paper suggests the two disciplines face a common problem when it comes to uncertainty. It is argued that … intervention, are as yet any nearer to providing robust solutions to the problems posed by Keynesian uncertainty. Under the … uncertainty follows, suggesting a future research agenda in this area of common interest to AI and economics. …