This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …

Adam Smith's ideas about the invisible hand, was a major contribution to an ongoing tradition in monetary theory in whose …

career as an academic, focusing on growth theory and Belgian and European growth patterns in the post-war period. His work is … eclectic approach towards economics, blending economic theory and empirical data beautifully to elucidate crucial policy …

Fiktion notwendig ist, aber eine Fiktion bleibt. Aber was heisst es für die (ökonomische) Theorie der Zukunftsentscheidungen …

catastrophic event even if its probability is negligibly small. With low degrees of risk aversion, however the catastrophic risk …Expected Utility theory is not only applied to individual choices but also to ethical decisions, e.g. in cost … EU theory is able to deal with 'catastrophic risks', i.e. risks of high, but very unlikely losses, in an ethically …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by … Cost of Carbon did not go far enough into the tail of low-probability, high-impact scenarios, and, via its approach to …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by … Cost of Carbon did not go far enough into the tail of low-probability, high-impact scenarios, and, via its approach to …

-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a … generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policymaking as a … decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides us with a …

Environmental policy often has to be devised under informational constraints, like uncertainty and asymmetric …