We propose a measure for systemic risk: CoVaR, the value at risk (VaR) of financial institutions conditional on other … institutions being in distress. We define an institution's (marginal) contribution to systemic risk as the difference between CoVaR … systemic risk contribution. We argue for macro-prudential regulation based on the degree to which such characteristics forecast …

We study the implications of the value at risk concept for the bank's optimum amount of equity capital under credit … risk. The market value of loans is risky and lognormally distributed. We show that the required equity capital depends upon …

In this paper we provide a review of copula theory with applications to finance. We illustrate the idea on the … allocation problems, Value-at-Risk and time series models. The paper is complemented with an extensive simulation study and an …

A strategically minded CFO will realize that strategic corporate risk management is about finding the right balance … between risk prevention and proactive value generation. Efficient risk and performance management requires adequate assessment … of risk and risk exposures on the one hand and performance on the other. Properly designed, a risk measure should provide …

In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk … using historical data. The incorporation of prediction and estimation risk generally leads to broader loss distributions and … therefore to rising values of risk parameters such as Value at Risk or Expected Shortfall. The level of economic capital …

An efficient and accurate approach is proposed for forecasting Value at Risk [VaR] and Expected Shortfall [ES] measures …

Risk estimation or volatility estimation at financial markets, particularly stock exchange markets, is complex issue of … pricing of stocks and better risk management. The aim of this research is to test applicability of simple models like Simple … Moving Average (SMA) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) to estimate risk. The performance of SMA and EWMA with …

The current subprime crisis has prompted us to look again into the nature of risk at the tail of the distribution. In … particular, we investigate the risk contribution of an asset, which has infrequent but huge losses, to a portfolio using two risk … measures, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). While ES is found to measure the tail risk contribution …

This paper studies the performance of nonparametric quantile regression as a tool to predict Value at Risk (VaR). The … extreme value theory. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of our methods turns out to be clearly superior to different …