Showing 1 - 10 of 1,745
We formulate a simple quantum decision model of the Ellsberg paradox. We report the results of an experiment we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887418
We derive a family of probabilistic choice models including the multinomial logit model, from a microeconomic model in which the decision maker has to make some effort in order to avoid mistakes when implementing any desired outcome. The disutility of this effort enters the decision maker's goal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010335088
with the behavior observed in the Ellsberg experiment. It can capture the same type of behavior as the multiple priors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940708
This paper explores the relationship between dynamic consistency and the existing notions of unambiguous events for Choquet expected utility preferences. A decision maker is faced with an information structure represented by a filtration. We show that the decision maker's preferences respect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422193
This paper argues that forecast estimators should minimise the loss function in a statistical, rather than deterministic, way. We introduce two new elements into the classical econometric analysis: a subjective guess on the variable to be forecasted and a probability reflecting the confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604630
Was in Märkten sich künftig ereignen wird, kann man nicht wissen, nur erwarten. Was man erwartet, wird in der Ökonomik probabilistisch eingearbeitet: als Risikoentscheidungen. Elena Esposito zufolge besteht unter Ökonomen aber ein fundamentales Missverständnis bezüglich der...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464432
Elena Esposito analysiert das ökonomische Entscheiden in Zukunftsmärkten (finance) als „Fiktion der wahrscheinlichen Realität“ (Esposito 2007). Eine ‚wahrscheinliche Realität’ ist eine Realitätsvermutung. In der Vermutung steckt eine Vorauswahl dessen, was wahrscheinlicher ist als...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381300
In this article we propose a two stage procedure to model demand decisions by customers who are balancing several dimensions of a product. We then test our procedure by analyzing the behavior of buyers from an Austrian price comparison site. Although in such a market a consumer will typically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294006
Contemporary approaches to decision making describe a decision problem by sets of states and outcomes, and a rich set of acts: functions from states to outcomes over which the decision maker (DM) has preferences. Real problems do not come so equipped. It is often unclear what the state and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294014
In this article we propose a two stage procedure to model demand decisions by customers who are balancing several dimensions of a product. We then test our procedure by analyzing the behavior of buyers from an Austrian price comparison site. Although in such a market a consumer will typically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294849