approach, based on the tests of Robinson (1994), introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the … more activist stabilisation policies. However, any suitable model should also include business cycle asymmetries, with …

ability to describe the US inflation data. Specifically, the model allows for long memory in the conditional mean formulation … yields a good description of the salient features, including skewness and heteroskedasticity, of the US inflation data …

particularly interested in volatility modelling and forecasting given their importance for FOREX dealers. Compared with previous …

variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators that are … macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time periods, while … inclusion of our spread variables improves predictive accuracy in times of high volatility. …

I present empirical results on the contribution of three key drivers of inflation in Denmark: an inflation trend … anchored by inflation expectations; the Danish business cycle; and an energy price cycle. All three drivers contribute … significantly to the development of inflation and explain most of the variation in the last 40 years. The results are based on a …

financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH … to forecast financial markets volatility. The real data in this study uses British Pound-US Dollar (GBP) daily exchange … examined to the free parameters. Keywords: recurrent support vector regression ; GARCH model ; volatility forecasting …

estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

We examine the performance of volatility models that incorporate features such as long (short) memory, regime …-t). Second, we perform a comprehensive panel forecasting analysis of the MSM models as well as other competing volatility models … (GMM) estimation are both suitable for MSM-t models, (ii) empirical panel forecasts of MSM-t models show an improvement …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …