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This paper quantifies the deterioration of achievable tabilization outcomes when monetary policy operates under imperfect credibility and weak anchoring of long-term expectations. Within a medium-scale DSGE model, we introduce through a simple signal extraction problem, an imperfect knowledge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605111
This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298276
We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283537
System). In the second part, we present a theory of central bank accountability. Two aspects of accountability are considered … Japan, Bank of England und Federal Reserve System). Im zweiten Teil stellen wir eine Theorie über die Rechenschaftspflicht … Geldpolitik und die Frage, wer die endgültige Verantwortung für die Geldpolitik trägt. Das Papier zeigt auf, dass die …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295694
The assumption of asymmetric and incomplete information in a standard New Keynesian model creates strong incentives for monetary policy transparency. We assume that the central bank has better information about its objectives than the private sector, and that the private sector has better...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605138
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014306479
stability. We model the default of a large bank and analyse the resulting contagion effects. This is compared to a common shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269747
of the Federal Reserve, which does not have such a target. The empirical analysis uses the speed of inflation forecast … convergence, estimated from professional forecasters' predictions at successive forecast horizons, to gauge the perceived …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010323567
Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic indicators is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282848
Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274048