Showing 1 - 10 of 1,486
Market analysts and central banks often use the implied volatility of FX options as an indicator of expected exchange … deviate the value of implied volatility from the exchange rate variability expected by the market. These biasing factors are … one month. However, implied volatility provides a biased estimate, and does not encompass the information included in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322417
Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263203
volatility. Compared to the classical lognormal distribution it has an additional shape parameter. It emerges that moment (in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390679
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295725
financial return data because they are able to capture volatility clustering as well as leptokurtic unconditional distributions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299994
Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295724
, especially on the BS implied volatility. Implied binomial trees (IBT) models capture the variations of the implied volatility … known as volatility smile. They provide a discrete approximation to the continuous risk neutral process for the underlying … Barle and Cakici (BC). After the formation of IBT we can estimate the implied local volatility and the state price density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275907
volatility models including long memory and leverage effects. We compute the price by applying a present value scheme as well as … the Black-Scholes and Hull-White formulas which includes stochastic volatility. We find that long memory as well as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296646
We assess whether the euro had an impact first on the degree of integration of European financial markets, and, second, on the euro area term structure. We propose two methodologies to measure integration: one relies on time-varying GARCH correlations, and the other one on a regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604644
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of three popular variants of the non-linear GARCH models, namely VS-GARCH, GJR-GARCH and Q-GARCH, with the symmetric GARCH(1,1) model as a benchmark. The application involves ten European stock price indexes. Forecasts produced by each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335762