In this paper, we have developed an agent-based Keynesian macro model that features a detailed representation of a banking system, besides households and firms, and in which fiscal, monetary and macroprudential policy regulators also operate. The banking system generates longer credit cycles on...

Our study deals with interest rate pass-through for household and corporate deposits in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, focusing on the tightening cycle starting in the middle of 2021. This period is of particular interest for interest rate pass-through, as the sharp hikes by...

Our study presents the top-down stress testing framework currently used by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. We run separate solvency and liquidity stress tests to analyse the ability of the banking system to absorb shocks and we present their results in our Report on Financial Stability. In the former,...

Within the framework of the Basel III capital regulation, macroprudential authorities may order the accumulation of countercyclical capital buffers in the period when systemic risks are building up. According to recommendations, it is worth setting the size of the capital buffer on the basis of...

This paper presents a complex, modular, 1:1 scale model of the Hungarian residential housing market. All the 4 million house- holds and their relevant characteristics are represented based on empirical micro-level data coming from the Central Credit Information System, the Pension Payment...

We use European and simulated Hungarian data to search for the univariate one-sided credit-to-GDP gap that predicts systemic banking crises most accurately. The credit-to-GDP gaps under review are optimized along four dimensions: (1) definition of outstanding credit, (2) forecasting method for...