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Pessimism related to the outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 and its development in 2020 determines the experts' predictions for the second and third quarter of 2020. The pessimistic outlook can be inferred from the downward revisions of the experts' forecasts. More downward revisions than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012222253
The paper presents the Dutch country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model (MCM) for the euro area. We show how a theoretical model is translated into an econometric specification and how this specification is in turn estimated and used in the projection exercises of the E(S)CB. The dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604692
This work describes the legal structuring of a mortgage covered bond in accordance with the regulations of paragraphs … rights of the bond holders according to the regulations of the German Statue Governing Common Rights of Owners of Debt … Securities (Schuldverschreibungsgesetz). Furthermore, the work describes how the bond creditors shall have preferences of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298959
. Nonetheless, the average CDS-bond basis (i.e. the difference between both measures) is positive in the period 2004-2005. We detect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506625
describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322393
relies on the interpretation of duration as (minus) theyield elasticity of the bond price, duration ismeasured as a bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324570
We assess the effect of aggregate stock market illiquidity on U.S. Treasury bond risk premia. We find that the stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326359
This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of Specialists in Economics from the Private Sector, maintained by Banco de M'exico. The study concentrates on the mean across forecasters for the period from January 1995 to April...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322588
predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605213
consumption growth since 1981. By using forecast data for both returns and macroeconomic fundamentals, we use the complete cross … quarters, forecasters, and forecast horizons. This approach yields 14727 observations, much greater than the 107 time series …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940758