The paper starts with examining the standard concept of government expenditure multiplier and finds that in a model of open economy with government revenues and expenditures the multiplier definition is incorrect in so far as the import intensity component relates total imports to GDP, whereas...

This paper investigates the impact of revisions in inflation expectations on the prices of UK inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Downwards revisions of inflation expectations are associated with unexpected increases in the prices of...

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and...

Ziel des vorliegenden Papiers ist es, den Einfluss makroökonomischer Größen auf die Einkommensungleichheit zu untersuchen. Auf Basis des sozio-ökonomischen Panels (SOEP) analysieren wir erstmalig diesen Zusammenhang für Deutschland. Dabei ist zu beobachten, dass die makroökonomischen...

This paper examines how shocks to the net supply of government bonds affect the euro area term structure of interest rates and the wider macroeconomy. To measure net debt supply we construct a new free-float measure, which adjusts total government debt of the four largest euro area economies for...

This report aims to analyse euro area energy markets and the impact of energy price changes on the macroeconomy from a monetary policy perspective. The core task of the report is to analyse the impact of energy price developments on output and consumer prices. Nevertheless, understanding the...

A large set of financial variables has only limited power to predict a latent factor common to the year-ahead forecast errors for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for three sets of professional forecasters: the Federal...

This paper surveys the evolution of macroeconomic policy, in the New Zealand context, from the beginning of the end of the Great Inflation of the 1970s/1980s, through to the current recovery from the Great Recession brought on by the Global Financial Crisis. The 30 or so years since the late...

We test the degree to which presidential approval ratings are related to a series of economic indicators, controlling for the political scenario in Brazil. Results, from 1999M9 until 2010M5, show that unemployment and the minimum wage are the main variables that affect the ratings. There is also...

Purpose: This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between the real estate market and the macroeconomic environment of China by use of dynamic coherence function based on co-spectral analysis. Design/methodology/approach: Through a theoretical perspective, the dynamic interrelationship...