The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about …

a backward stochastic differential equation and incorporates preference for the local risk of the stochastic utility …

the information would otherwise have become public. Consequently, disclosure shifts risk from later cohorts of investors … to allocate risk intertemporally. This paper shows that a policy of partial disclosure (and, hence, of intertemporal risk …