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A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices: Are there substantial differences?
Schmidt, Robert; Leitner, Johannes - 2004
The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296526
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Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices
Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert; Bofinger, Peter - 2003
The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305737
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Scientific Advice to Public Policy-Making
Papponetti, Valeria; Pinelli, Dino - 2004
, credible, and effective. This paper discusses how policy-making profits from scientific advice in areas where science and … inherent variability, because science is incomplete or controversial, or because data are inadequate to support a definitive … answer. First, we analyse the social context that characterises the relationship between science and policy-making, with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011324991
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Expertise and Independence on Governing Boards: Evidence from School Districts
Shi, Ying; Singleton, John D. - 2019
In this paper, we study the roles of expertise and independence on governing boards in the context of education. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059144
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Board composition and firm reputation: The role of business experts, support specialists and community influentials
García-Meca, Emma; Palacio, Carlos J. - In: BRQ Business Research Quarterly 21 (2018) 2, pp. 111-123
to address whether business, technical expertise or political ties in the boardroom affect stakeholders’ opinion and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012118448
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The educated underdog becomes the ultimate superstar
Hjertstrand, Per; Norbäck, Pehr-Johan; Persson, Lars - 2017
We find an inverted relation between a player's birthday and the likelihood of receiving the Ballon d'Or (awarded to the best football player in the world). We develop a multi-period skill formation model with selection into elite education. We show that those born late (underdogs) need to work...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011917052
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Optimal Incentive Contracts for Experts
Köhler, Wolfgang R. - 2004
precision of his information. We extend the model to analyze contracting with multiple experts, the timing of expertise, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263103
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Experts and decision making: first steps towards a unifying theory of decision making in novices, intermediates and experts
Herbig, Britta; Glöckner, Andreas - 2009
Expertise research shows quite ambiguous results on the abilities of experts in judgment and decision making (JDM …) classic models cannot account for. This problem becomes even more accentuated if different levels of expertise are considered … expert JDM and the hitherto existing, differentiated results from expertise research. It is outlined how expertise might …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267004
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Optimal delegation with a finite number of states
Anesi, Vincent; Seidmann, Daniel - 2011
This paper studies delegation without monetary transfers when the number of possible states is small, and therefore finite. To do so, we fully characterize the class of optimal delegation sets in the finite-state version of Holmstrom's (1984) seminal model and analyze their properties. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277505
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Tax Robbery Incorporated: The transnational legal infrastructures of tax arbitrage
Liste, Philip - 2022
In the media, the so-called cum/ex trades were addressed as the biggest tax robbery in history. In a few years, the financial trading scheme caused an estimated damage to European state treasuries of ca. 50 billion euros. Through highly complex transactions, a network of equity traders, banks,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191626