This paper considers the design of macroeconomic policies in the face of uncertainty. In recent years, several … absent any uncertainty. …

rulings at the European Court of Justice (ECJ) are uncertain. We find that higher uncertainty about the preferences of the ECJ …

the analysis of several indicators of uncertainty. In addition to well established concepts, we introduce innovative … measures based on the skewness of forecast errors and on the share of 'no response' replies. Results show that uncertainty …

We derive robust predictions on the effects of uncertainty on short run investment dynamics in a broad class of models … of UK firms and a stock returns-based measure of uncertainty. As predicted we find that uncertainty reduces firms …

The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about … technology. We directly measure uncertainty from aggregate time series using Sequential Monte Carlo Methods. While we find …

stochastic optimization problem However under realistic descriptions of utility and uncertainty the optimal consumption …

Economists working with numerical solutions to the optimal consumption/saving problem under uncertainty have long known … rigorous basis for the oft-noted similarity between the effects of introducing uncertainty and introducing constraints by … showing that in both cases the effects spring from the concavity in the consumption function which either uncertainty or …

This paper examines how time to build alters strategic investment behaviour under oligopoly. Facing demand uncertainty …, firms decide whether to invest early or wait until uncertainty has been resolved. A game that captures time …