into China, consistent with recent trade policies by the US and the Chinese governments. We abstract from tariffs on goods … exported from the euro area, focusing on a US-China trade war. A unilateral tariff from the US against China dampens US exports … in line with the Lerner Symmetry theorem but global output contracts. Global output contracts even further after China …

euro and the Chinese renminbi (RMB). It focuses on what we call China’s “dominance hypothesis”, i.e. whether the renminbi … global financial crisis. These results are consistent with China’s dominance hypothesis and with the view that the … international monetary system is already tri-polar. However, we also find that China’s currency movements are to some extent …