domestic product. We introduce the first leading indicator constructed to forecast import growth, the Import Climate. It builds …Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since … imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross …

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its … infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate …. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the domestic country should be reflected in the expected export …

We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing …, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained …

We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing …, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained …

, panel estimates for a large number of OECD countries suggest that the high import-intensity of exports at the country … import-intensive expenditure category of investment also contributed to the remaining fall in global trade. At the same time …, the high and rising import-intensity of exports also reflects and captures the rapid growth in “vertical specialisation …

the best performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errorsfor export growth than … expectations. However, largecountry differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. Thesedifferences are …. For hard indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition toexplain differences in forecast accuracy. …

the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …

for addressing the question from an empirical angle, searching for the indicator that best explains and helps forecast …

direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using … an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and …