This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes's theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different "theories" of business fluctuations. With different theoretical...

Forward guidance as a tool of unconventional monetary policy can be highly efficient to support aggregate demand and to steer the economy out of the zero lower bound (ZLB). However, the effect that stimulates the economy can give rise to a time-inconsistency problem: if the central bank promises...

Effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables during 1973-93 are analysed using a disaggregated macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy. Fiscal policy is measured as deviations from estimated trends for disaggregated policy variables. The policy effects are related to the cyclical...

This article considers the current economic situation from the lens of modern money theory (MMT) and expresses a policy response rooted in post-Keynesian theory and empirical data for the US and the euro area. First, MMT supports targeted deficit spending to promote production. Increasing...

The recently observed disconnect between inflation and economic activity can be explained by the interplay between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the costs of external financing. In normal times, credit spreads and the nominal interest rate balance out; factor costs dominate firms' marginal...

The New View on fiscal policy (as coined by Furman 2016) represents a rethinking of the main-stream consensus on the optimal macroeconomic policy mix. It focuses on a reassessment of the relative effectiveness of fiscal policy and its ability to stabilise the economy when monetary policy reaches...

This paper employs fifteen dynamic macroeconomic models maintained within the European System of Central Banks to assess the size of fiscal multipliers in European countries. Using a set of common simulations, we consider transitory and permanent shocks to government expenditures and different...

This paper employs fifteen dynamic macroeconomic models maintained within the European System of Central Banks to assess the size of fiscal multipliers in European countries. Using a set of common simulations, we consider transitory and permanent shocks to government expenditures and different...

We show that the Kaldor (1940) trade cycle mechanism can be meaningfully applied to the market for residential housing space, since the demand for houses may be positively related to the housing price in a mid-range price domain, while it is downward sloping for house prices sufficiently small...

We show an example of a small open economy - the Czech Republic - where the fiscal restriction was put in place between 2010 and 2013 in a negative output gap and zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. According to our results, such fiscal policy seems to have been mistaken, as the...