the time of the election. We exploit this variation to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclave on conflict. We … find that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization raised the likelihood of internal conflict …We study the effect of divisions within the elite on the probability of internal conflict in the Papal States between …

rivals of a different affiliation. The overall patterns of conflict in continental Europe as well as those between the …

ultimate determinants of conflict. However, fractionalization in all its demographic forms is endogenous in the long run. In … the relationship between fractionalization and the propensity of internal conflict statistically insignificant. Finally …

polarization, a key mechanism theorized as increasing the chances of violent conflict, remains less understood. We argue that …Does secessionism lead to social polarization? Despite much research on independence movements, their relationship to …. However, polarization does not necessarily lead to violence. We explore the case of Catalonia, a region that experienced a …