period ahead; in the Volatility treatment, we also elicit subjective confidence intervals of forecasts, which we take as a … measure of perceived volatility. The realized asset price is derived from a Walrasian market equilibrium equation with non …-linear feedback from individual forecasts. Our experimental markets exhibit high volatility, fat tails and other properties typical of …

and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium …

This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns and stock return volatility of energy corporations from the … European utilities, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Most importantly, we show that oil market volatility … negatively affects European oil and gas stocks. In contrast, energy stock volatility is not driven by volatility of the resource …

intermediary data reveal economically large price pressures. A $100,000 inventory shock causes an average price pressure of 0 ….28% with a half-life of 0.92 days. Price pressure causes average transitory volatility in daily stock returns of 0.49%. Price …

differences of opinion is left, and hence volatility is decreased. …

In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean …(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable … Stochastic Volatility (SV)model. However, efficient Monte Carlo simulationmethods for SV models have been developed to overcome …

This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas in any purely forward-looking model …, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, anticipation amplifies volatility, we obtain ambiguous results when including a …) to provide numerical evidence that news shocks increase the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in the euro area …

This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas anticipation amplifies volatility …) to provide numerical evidence that news shocks increase the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in the euro area …

finance. The major attraction of these processes is their ability to generate various degrees of long memory in different … Bayesian forecasting of volatility. However, applicability of MLE is restricted to cases with a discrete distribution of … volatility components. From a practical point of view, ML also becomes computationally unfeasible for large numbers of components …