Using the industrial organization approach to the microeconomics of banking we model a large (Monti-Klein) bank which is risk neutral and faces credit uncertainty in its loan business. The impact of capital adequacy regulation and the effect of changes in risk on deposit and loan rates are...

In einem einfach gehaltenen Bankmodell untersucht der Beitrag die ökonomischen Wirkungen des Einsatzes von Derivaten für marktgängige und nicht marktgängige Risiken. Wir betrachten das klassische Kredit– und Einlagengeschäft einer kompetitiven Bank. Sind Kreditausfall- und...

In diesem Beitrag wird die Einsatzmöglichkeit eines Kreditderivats vom Typ einer Kreditoption für eine Bank untersucht. Das Management des Kreditrisikos erfährt in jüngerer Zeit besondere Aufmerksamkeit. Gestiegenen Kreditausfallrisiken begegnen Kreditinstitute mehr und mehr durch die...

Using the industrial economics approach to the microeconomics of banking we analyze a large bank under credit risk. Our aim is to study how a risky loan portfolio affects optimal bank behavior in the loan and deposit markets, when credit derivatives to hedge credit risk are available. We examine...

BankCaR is a credit risk model that forecasts the distribution of a commercial bank's charge-offs. The distribution depends only on systematic factors; BankCaR takes each bank and projects its expected charge-off across a distribution of good years and bad years. Since most bank failures occur...

We study dynamic panel data models where the long run outcome for a particular cross-section is affected by a weighted average of the outcomes in the other cross-sections. We show that imposing such a structure implies several cointegrating relationships that are nonlinear in the coefficients to...

Default probabilities (PDs) and correlations play a crucial role in the New Basel Capital Accord. In commercial credit risk models they are an important constituent. Yet, modeling and estimation of PDs and correlations is still under active discussion. We show how the Basel II one factor model...

The main challenge of forecasting credit default risk in loan portfolios is forecasting the default probabilities and the default correlations. We derive a Merton-style threshold-value model for the default probability which treats the asset value of a firm as unknown and uses a factor model...

In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk measures and economic capital. When variables for the determination of probability of default and loss distribution have to be predicted because they are not available at the...

Results from portfolio models for credit risk tell us that loan concentration in certain industry sectors can substantially increase the value-at-risk (VaR). The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether a tractable "infection model" can provide a meaningful estimate of the impact of...