Credit risk is an important issue in many finance areas, such as the determination of cost of capital, the valuation of corporate bonds and pricing of credit derivatives. Credit risk has also been a cause and consequence of the current financial crisis. Thus, methods for measuring credit risk,...

The main challenge of forecasting credit default risk in loan portfolios is forecasting the default probabilities and the default correlations. We derive a Merton-style threshold-value model for the default probability which treats the asset value of a firm as unknown and uses a factor model...

Default probabilities (PDs) and correlations play a crucial role in the New Basel Capital Accord. In commercial credit risk models they are an important constituent. Yet, modeling and estimation of PDs and correlations is still under active discussion. We show how the Basel II one factor model...

Mehrperiodenausfallprognose eines Bankportfolios aus deutschen mittelständischen Unternehmen Dieser Artikel analysiert einen umfangreichen Datensatz mit Jahresabschluss und Ausfallinformationen deutscher, mittelständischer Unternehmen. Diese Daten, welche als typisch für ein...

The calibration of financial models is laborious, time-consuming and expensive, and needs to be performed frequently by financial institutions. Recently, the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for model calibration has gained interest. This paper provides the first comprehensive...

For banks, credit lines play an important role exposing both liquidity and credit risk. In the advanced internal ratings‐based approach, banks are obliged to use their own estimates of exposure at default using credit conversion factors. For volatile segments, additional downturn estimates are...

Considering counterparty credit risk (CCR) for derivatives using valuation adjustments (CVA) is a fundamental and challenging task for entities involved in derivative trading activities. Particularly calculating the expected exposure is time consuming and complex. This paper suggests a fast and...