Financial market spillovers around the globeThis paper investigates the transmission of return and volatility spillovers around the globe. It draws on index futures of three representative indices, namely the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225. Devolatised returns and...

We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors' mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a tri-variate vector autoregression for short-run...

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2,580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since the early 1990s....

We explore the term structures of claims to a variety of cash flows: U.S. government bonds (claims to dollars), foreign government bonds (claims to foreign currency), inflation-adjusted bonds (claims to the price index), and equity (claims to future equity indexes or dividends). Average term...

This paper reconsiders the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices. Using survey-based sentiment indicators from Germany and the US we confirm previous findings of predictability at intermediate time horizons. The main contribution of our paper is that we also analyze the immediate price...

How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon...

This paper investigates the role of published stock recommendations in print and online media as investor sentiment in the near-term German stock market. In line with extant literature on other sentiment measures, vector autoregressions reveal that past stock returns drive today's sentiment, but...

Pricing kernels play a major role in quantifying risk aversion and investors' preferences. Several empirical studies reported that pricing kernels exhibit a common pattern across different markets. Mostly visual inspection and occasionally numerically summarise are used to make comparison. With...

In this paper we empirically analyze the permanent price impact of trades by investigating the relation between unexpected net order flow and price changes. We use intraday data on German index futures. Our analysis based on a neural network model suggests that the assumption of a linear impact...

In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX...