We analyze forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in Banco de México's Survey of Professional Forecasters for …-dimensional panel with multiple individual forecasters, target years, and forecast horizons. The fixed-event nature of the forecasts … shocks and to construct a measure of the news that impacted expectations in the period under study. The results suggest that …

subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations … empirical relationships are in fact stable. We consider continuous models, which predict either economic growth or inflation … Germany and the United States. Models that predict real activity are more stable than those that predict inflation, and binary …

(GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting …Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of …-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis under different …

the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My …

last three decades. Are lagged dependent variables - traditionally interpreted as proxies for inflation expectations - just … expectations in the inflation process; if indeed inflation is a global phenomenon, the task of controlling inflation expectations … inflation expectations. Are the actions of central banks nothing more than a sideshow? …

Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been … almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume … expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense …

explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark …Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936) macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in … empirical expectations data instead assuming all agents' expectations are rational This paper takes up the challenge of modeling …

experts? inflation expectations, we find that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations … expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations sporadically rather than …

This paper presents an analysis of the expected inflation distribution based on the surveys made to economic analysts …, under an event-study framework the respond of upside risks of inflation expectations to the approval of the Income Law is …, dispersion, and skewness, of expected inflation. It is anticipated that the behavior of these aspects will be consistent with the …

last two years, can well be explained. Alongside the more traditional macroeconomic determinants like core inflation … model in different forecasting exercises. …