This paper studies the determinants of firms’ business outlook and managerial mitigation strategies in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis using a representative panel of German firms. We first demonstrate that the crisis amplifies pre-crisis weaknesses: Firms that appear relatively weak before...

Zur Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie wurde die Wirtschaftstätigkeit in weiten Teilen der deutschen Volkswirtschaft in erheblichem Maße heruntergefahren. Diese Studie untersucht mithilfe der Daten aus der ifo Konjunkturumfrage, wie deutsche Unternehmen im Zuge dieses partiellen Shutdown ihre...

Covid-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...

This paper studies the determinants of firms' business outlook and managerial mitigation strategies in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis using a representative panel of German firms. We first demonstrate that the crisis amplifies pre-crisis weaknesses: Firms that appear relatively weak before the...

COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...

This paper studies a new aspect of firms' expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect aggregate, industry-wide information (e.g., industry trends) or disaggregate information (e.g., firm-specific information). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly...

This paper studies a new aspect of firms’ expectation formation by asking whether expectations primarily reflect aggregate, industry-wide information (e.g., industry trends) or disaggregate information (e.g., firm-specific information). First, we show that disaggregate information is strongly...

We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through—the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation—is small: 0.11–0.17 for firms and 0.03–0.07 for...

We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through—the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation—is small: 0.11–0.17 for firms and 0.03–0.07 for...

Die zukünftige Lohnentwicklung ist ein zentraler Faktor für die Personal- und Preispolitik von Unternehmen, insbesondere in Zeiten hoher Inflation und wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit. Der Artikel untersucht die Prognosegüte der Lohnerwartungen deutscher Unternehmen auf Basis neuartiger...