In der heutigen Theorie der Optionsbewertung wird davon ausgegangen, daß die Markterwartungen genau berechenbar sind. Die Unsicherheit besteht lediglich darin, welcher Aktienkurs sich letztlich realisiert, die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten sind bekannt. Dabei treten jedoch erhebliche Probleme...

In a continuous-time setting where a risk-averse agent controls the drift of an output process driven by a Brownian motion, optimal contracts are linear in the terminal output; this result is well-known in a setting with moral hazard and under stronger assumptions adverse selection. We show that...

We compare the effects of taxes and quotas for an environmental problem in which the regulator and polluter have asymmetric information about abatement costs, and the environmental damage depends on the stock of pollution. We thus extend to a dynamic framework previous studies in which...

We study the valuation and hedging of unit-linked life insurance contracts in a setting where mortality intensity is governed by a stochastic process. We focus on model risk arising from different specifications for the mortality intensity. To do so we assume that the mortality intensity is...

We apply standardized numerical techniques of stochastic optimization (Judd [1998]) to the climate change issue. The model captures the feature that the effects of uncertainty are different with different levels of agent's risk aversion. A major finding is that the effects of stochasticity...

In this paper is carry out an analysis of affinities in the perception on how to leave the crisis behind. For that we have considered the opinion of experts belonging to the politics, the economy, the company and the banking in order to gather those opinions and to look for likeness and...

With the coefficient matrices of the polynomial matrices replacing the scalar coefficients in the standard Sylvester matrix, common factors exist if and only if this (generalized) Sylvester matrix is singular and the coefficient matrices commute. If the coefficient matrices do not commute, a...

Tourist demand is subject to considerable variations, a fact which aggravates the development of forecast models of sufficiently adequate accuracy. This study develops models that permit including most if not all factors of influence. To this end, due consideration was given to calendar effects...

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

We compare taxes and quotas when firms and the regulator have asymmetric information about abatement costs. Damages are caused by a stock pollutant. Uncertainty enters multiplicatively, i.e. it affects the slope rather than the intercept of abatement costs. We calibrate the model using cost and...