The uncertainty in the financial market, whether the US—China trade war will slow down the global economy or not … uncertainty based on the news text. Further, we proposed an extended topic model that uses not only news text data but also … uncertainty indices. All these indices were similar to those observed in the historical macroeconomic events. The correlation was …

Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the … economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types … of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques to classify different types of news instead of specifying a set of …

evolving theory of Economic Narratives (Shiller, 2017), RollingLDA is applied to the measurement of economic uncertainty. The … new version of our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI), based on a newspaper corpus of 2.8 million German newspaper … articles, published between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2020, proves indeed capable of detecting an uncertainty narrative …

In this paper we update our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) with data from the first quarter of 2021. UPI values … by then its nature is still unknown. As shown in previous versions of the UPI, uncertainty has mainly been fed by the … political sphere since the 2010s. Towards the end of our observation period, however, uncertainty from the international and …

example, we update our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (Müller and Hornig 2020), setting it on a firmer footing by enlarging … or so incalculable politics was the main driver of economic uncertainty perception. Now truly exogenous developments …