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The empirical joint distribution of return-pairs on stock indices displays high tail-dependence in the lower tail and low tail-dependence in the upper tail. The presence of tail-dependence is not compatible with the assumption of (conditional) joint normality. The presence of asymmetric-tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292792
This study proposes a novel framework for the joint modelling of commodity forward curves. Its key contribution is twofold. First, dynamic correlation models are applied in this context as part of the modelling scheme. Second, we introduce a family of dynamic conditional correlation models based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318781
Using daily return data from the four major Central and Eastern European stock markets including fourteen highly liquid stocks and ATX (Vienna), PX (Prague), BUX (Budapest), and WIG20 (Warsaw) market indices, we model the value-at-risk using a set of univariate GARCH-type models. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322212
In this selective review, we first provide some empirical examples that motivate the usefulness of semi-nonparametric techniques in modelling economic and financial time series. We describe popular classes of semi-nonparametric dynamic models and some temporal dependence properties. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288336
, volatility spillovers from the Chinese stock market to economic neighbours, a detailed comparison of Value-at-Risk estimates, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326135
of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting … errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are … of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326350
There appears to be a consensus that the recent instability in global financial markets may be attributable in part to the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks associated with large adverse stock price behavior. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301728
characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in … market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and forecasting of market volatility. The implication is that models … that accomodate long memory hold the promise of improved long-run volatility forecast as well as accurate pricing of long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274140
We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realized volatility is constructed … from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures. Implied volatility is backed out from prices of … associated bond options. Recent nonparametric statistical techniques are used to separate realized volatility into its continuous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010290465
This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the … decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604911