to find a household's optimal welfare and we measure vulnerability as the shortfall from the welfare attained if the … household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The results indicate that vulnerability is very sensitive to the time …

This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …

exogenous risk and delegation. That is, we show that only if exogenous risk is sufficiently large, the risk-neutral principal … may prefer to delegate authority over decisions to the risk-averse agent. Intuitively, for incentive reasons, the … principal may optimally want to allow the agent to reduce his risk exposure. Nevertheless, even endogenous risk may be higher …

to meet their financial obligations. It is based on classical financial-statement approach, a direct inclusion of risk …