Showing 1 - 10 of 13,633
may be generalized, if we use alternative measures of volatility. We choose one feasible alternative and derive a … generalized volatility model. Applying this model to some exemplary market indices, we are able to give some empirical evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299748
measurement error, we propose using common information contained in different measures derived from survey data, a variety of … forecast models, and volatility models. We show that all measures are driven by a common component which constitutes an … measurement error during economic downturns. Finally, we study the Friedman-Ball hypothesis. Using the indicator, it turns out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312179
the commodity futures price. The significance and form of volatility spill-over effects of a bilateral exchange rate are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291928
Recent theory on exchange rate dynamics suggests that the mere announcement of regime switching from floating to fixed … rates at a given future date triggers a reduction in exchange rate volatility during the interim period. Using a Markov …-switching GARCH model this paper estimates the volatility processes of four EMU exchange rate returns vis-?-vis the German mark using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295594
The volatility information content of stock options for individual firms is measured using option prices for 149 U ….S. firms and the S&P 100 index. ARCH and regression models are used to compare volatility forecasts defined by historical stock … returns, at-the-money implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations for every firm. For one-day-ahead estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010302536
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of three popular variants of the non-linear GARCH models, namely VS-GARCH, GJR-GARCH and Q-GARCH, with the symmetric GARCH(1,1) model as a benchmark. The application involves ten European stock price indexes. Forecasts produced by each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335762
Market analysts and central banks often use the implied volatility of FX options as an indicator of expected exchange … deviate the value of implied volatility from the exchange rate variability expected by the market. These biasing factors are … one month. However, implied volatility provides a biased estimate, and does not encompass the information included in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322417
We assess whether the euro had an impact first on the degree of integration of European financial markets, and, second, on the euro area term structure. We propose two methodologies to measure integration: one relies on time-varying GARCH correlations, and the other one on a regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604644
observed that the volatility shocks are quite persistent and take a long time to die out. September 11, 2001incident and … thereafter war on terror has increased the conditional volatility of foreign direct investment and has statistically significant … volatility. One interesting finding of this study is that the impact of Non-Democratic regime before September, 11 scenario is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011938300
describe the most typical features of capital markets like volatility clustering, excess kurtosis and fat tails. As empirical … evidence shows asymmetry is also a prominent feature of stock market returns volatility. The reaction of risk if stock returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270556