The behavior of asset prices is analyzed in a general equilibrium model where agents not only have preferences over consumption but also (implicitly) over their beliefs. Agents endogenously choose to disregard information contained in a signal if it conflicts with their desired beliefs. In this...

This paper presents theoretical models and their empirical results for the return and variance dynamics of German stocks. A factor structure is used in order to allow for a parsimonious modeling of the first two moments of returns. Dynamic factor models with GARCH dynamics (GARCH(1,1)-M,...

Realized capital gains are typically disregarded in the study of income inequality. We show that in the case of Sweden this severely underestimates the actual increase in inequality and, in particular, top income shares during recent decades. Using micro panel data to average incomes over longer...

Realized capital gains are typically disregarded in the study of income inequality. We show that in the case of Sweden this severely underestimates the actual increase in inequality and, in particular, top income shares during recent decades. Using micro panel data to average incomes over longer...

With the aim of constructing predictive distributions for daily returns, we introduce a new Markov normal mixture model in which the components are themselves normal mixtures. We derive the restrictions on the autocovariances and linear representation of integer powers of the time series in...

I analyse the effect of ownership structure and bank control on performance. I employ a unique data set of 715 German takeovers to test whether group structure, large shareholders, and bank control affect their value to shareholders. First, I find that takeovers increase bidder value, but...

Tse (1998) proposes a model which combines the fractionally integrated GARCH formulation of Baillie, Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996) with the asymmetric power ARCH specification of Ding, Granger and Engle (1993). This paper analyzes the applicability of a multivariate constant conditional...

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2,580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since the early 1990s....