The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts...

Recent research has shown that institutional herding is a relevant phenomenon in stock markets. Do institutional investors also follow each other in bond markets? This paper focuses on the German bond market and uses data from 57 German mutual funds that invest mainly in DM-denominated bonds,...

This paper presents and compares several time-series models for returns of broadbased stock indices. These models nest a nonlinear asymmetric GARCH (NGARCH) model as a special case. Some of these models are empirically motivated ad-hoc specifications others are derived from a representative...

This paper presents and compares several time-series models for returns of broadbased stock indices. These models nest a nonlinear asymmetric GARCH (NGARCH) model as a special case. Some of these models are empirically motivated ad-hoc specifications others are derived from a representative...

Behavioral finance theory is used for the foreign exchange market to show, that the profit of a typical trader is mainly due to the higher number of correct positions. Using behavioral finance the amount of loss trades is larger than 60%, however the individual gains are larger than the losses...

Economics is increasingly adopting the methodological standards and procedures of the natural sciences. The paper analyzes this 'naturalistic turn' from the philosophical perspective on naturalism, and I discuss the implications for the field of finance. The theory of finance is an interesting...

Inspired by the theory of social imitation (Weidlich 1970) and its adaptation to financial markets by the Coherent Market Hypothesis (Vaga 1990), we present a behavioral model of stock prices that supports the overreaction hypothesis. Using our dynamic stock price model, we develop a two factor...

Global agierende Publikumsgesellschaften werden zunehmend mit dem spezifischen Verhalten einer kulturell diversen Investorenöffentlichkeit konfrontiert. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden in vorliegender Publikation entsprechende Hypothesen in Bezug auf ausgewählte kulturell bedingte Probleme an...

Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...

We extend gender research on risk behavior to betting markets. Our data set consists of all 5,136,660 bets in New Zealand from 2006 to 2009 and allows assigning each bet to individ-ual bettors. Women are much more prone to the favorite-longshot bias and suffer higher losses. Usually, betting on...