The Bagwell and Staiger (1990) theory of cooperative trade agreements predicts new tariffs (i) increase with imports, (ii) increase with the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticities, and (iii) decrease with the variance of imports. We find US import policy during...

This paper uses highly detailed, quarterly data for five major industrialized economies to estimate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1 - 2010:Q4. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample of data provide evidence of two key relationships....

This paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the trade policies of thirteen major emerging economies over 1989 - 2010; by 2010, these WTO member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world GDP. We examine determinants of...

We examine how theoretical and quantitative economic analysis has and can be used in this stage of the DSU process. First, we identify, characterize, and categorize the major classes of disputes e.g., those affecting import protection versus export promotion and use the Bagwell and Staiger...

This paper shows that the Electoral College system used to elect presidents of the United States (US) distorts US federal policies in favor of key industries in swing states. Using detailed data on US trade policies during the past few decades, we find that the level of trade protection granted...

Suppose that when addressing the question of “what’s left for the WTO?,” negotiators relied not on the agenda established in 2001 but instead on the terms-of-trade theory of trade agreements to identify tariff negotiating priorities. This paper uses the lens of the terms-of-trade theory to...

We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only...

First Japan, and more recently the People's Republic of China, have pursued exportoriented growth strategies. While other Asian countries have done likewise, the cases of Japan and the People's Republic of China are of particular interest because their economies are so large and the size of the...

During the last decades, the United States has applied increasingly high trade protection against China. We combine detailed information on US antidumping (AD) duties — the most widely used trade barrier — with US input-output data to study the effects of trade protection along supply...