With the aim of constructing predictive distributions for daily returns, we introduce a new Markov normal mixture model in which the components are themselves normal mixtures. We derive the restrictions on the autocovariances and linear representation of integer powers of the time series in...

The role of expectations for economic fluctuations has received considerable attention in recent business cycle analysis. We exploit Markov regime switching models to identify shocks in cointegrated structural vector autoregressions and investigate different identification schemes for bi-variate...

In this paper, we address the question whether the impact of default risk on equity returns depends on the financial system firms operate in. Using an implementation of Merton's option-pricing model for the value of equity to estimate firms' default risk, we construct a factor that measures the...

Die strategische Asset Allokation ist die für den langfristigen Anlageerfolg wichtigste Entscheidung eines Kapitalanlegers. Eine fundierte Entscheidung erfordert einen mehrstufigen, strukturierten Prozess. Der Anleger muss sich mit den realistischen Chancen des Kapitalmarktes und mit seinen...

In this paper, a model of bounded rational investors investing their portfolio in a passive investment vehicle (e.g., an Exchange Traded Fund replicating a broad index) or an actively managed fund is presented. The model proposes that the quick reswitching of these short-term oriented investors...

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the...

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the...

The Chinese stock market features an interesting history of divided market segments: domestic (A), foreigners' (B) and overseas (H). This puts forth questions of market integration as well as cross-divisional information transmission. We address these issues in a structural DCC framework, an...

This paper considers a stylized asset pricing model where the returns from exchange rates, stocks and bonds are linked by basic risk-arbitrage relationships. Employing GMM estimation and monthly data for 18 economies and the US (treated as the domestic country), we identify through a simple test...

This study focuses on the diversification benefits of the most developed equity markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). To evaluate these benefits of diversification we use so-called spanning tests based on a stochastic discount factor approach and estimated by General Methods of Moments...