This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …

We present a tractable model of the effects of nonfinancial risk on intertemporal choice. Our purpose is to provide a … economy, where most modelers have chosen not to incorporate serious nonfinancial risk because available methods were too … most of the key implications of nonfinancial risk for intertemporal choice. …

discuss the transaction attributes 'asset specificity' and 'uncertainty' and identify conceptual gaps that lead to ambiguous …

China has turned from a 'low risk' to a 'high risk' society since the start of the market reforms in the late 1970s … exposure and vulnerability to them unequally among different social groups. This paper attempts to apply the risk concept to … this family, and explore the relationships between livelihood, risk, social networks, agency and public policy …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by …

This paper is devoted to risk management and risk measurement methods. The author considers methods of risk measurement … and proposes the Inte- gral Sum of Differential Weighted Indexes of Risks (or ISDWIR) method of risk measurement. The … method is based on dynamic enterprise risk matri- ces. The matrix describes the changes of corporate risk values over the …

uncertainty which persists in spite of superficial similarities. It is argued that the difference stems from the mainstream habit … of thinking in terms of a full-information benchmark, where uncertainty arises from incomplete information. Degrees of … uncertainty (or ambiguity) refer to the quantifiable extent of incompleteness. In contrast, Keynesian uncertainty cannot, even in …

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of uncertainty on the value of real options while allowing for a … uncertainty does not hold, if the value of the underlying asset changes due to a Variation of the Standard deviation. Only if the … underlying risk is unsystematic or the binding relation between risk and return is neglected, the strictly positive effect of …

although risk can be measured, uncertainty cannot be measured. Even though risk can be measured, a simple symmetric measure … attempt at "measuring" risk or (fundamental) uncertainty is flawed. … surge in the stock market would be self-correcting. Recent papers have discussed the role of "uncertainty" and its …