This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by …

This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established social cost of carbon (SCC) for … discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by …

frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of …

This paper analyzes the welfare effects of the Italian social security system in an economy with uncertainty on wages … turns out to decrease ex-ante individual welfare, unless restrictions are assumed on retirement behavior. Overall, risk … shown to yield a slight ex-ante welfare improvement from a purely risk-insurance perspective. This relative gain stems from …

In a partial equilibrium setting without price uncertainty, the balanced-budget substitution of an ad valorem tax on … competitive market characterised by uncertainty about the commodity price, if firms can respond to the revelation of demand …

The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about … considerable evidence of policy risk in the data, we show that the "pure uncertainty"-effect of policy risk is unlikely to play a …

Recent theoretical developments relating to investment under uncertainty have highlighted the importance of … empirical literature which examines uncertainty and threshold effects of investment behaviour. This paper presents a review of … investment, the majority focusing on the relationship between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty. A general …

Theory and practice of monetary policy have changed significantly over the past three decades. A very important part of …

This paper studies optimal discretionary policy with parameter uncertainty about inflation inertia. Optimal policy … in the presence of uncertainty about inflation inertia, depending on the form of the central bank’s objective function …