How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar's role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They...

The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar's role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price...

We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements - dollar trinity - rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data:...

We quantify spillbacks from US monetary policy based on structural scenario analysis and minimum relative entropy methods applied in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model estimated on data for the time period from 1990 to 2019. We find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial...

We quantify spillbacks from US monetary policy based on structural scenario analysis and minimum relative entropy methods applied in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model for the time period from 1990 to 2019. We find that spillbacks account for up to half of the overall...

Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers such as business cycle co-movement, optimal monetary policy, optimum currency areas and international monetary policy co-ordination. Unfortunately, the literature has...

In a highly interlinked global economy a key question is how foreign shocks transmit to the domestic economy, how domestic shocks affect the rest of the world, and how policy actions mitigate or amplify spillovers. For policy analysis in such a context global multi-country macroeconomic models...

In this study, we investigate how firm expectations about their own developments respond to different types of news. We classify news as either micro or macro, with micro news being information about firm-specific developments and macro news being information about the aggregate economy. Our...

Energy prices have risen sharply as a result of the coronavirus pandemic as well as the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The resulting consumer price inflation is forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to act in accordance with its mandate. However, the ECB expresses doubts that it...

Durch die Corona-Pandemie und insbesondere den russischen Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine sind die Energiepreise stark gestiegen. Die damit einhergehende hohe Verbraucherpreisinflation zwingt die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) ihrem Mandat entsprechend zum Handeln. Jedoch äußerte die EZB...