We propose the systemic risk beta as a measure for financial companies' contribution to systemic risk given network interdependence between firms' tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we define the...

Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...

Copula-GARCH models have been recently proposed in the financial literature as a statistical tool to build flexible multivariate distributions. Our extensive simulation studies investigate the small sample properties of these models and examine how misspecification in the marginals may affect...

This paper describes a structural dynamic microsimulation model of the household that has been developed to explore behavioural responses to pensions policy counterfactuals in Ireland. The model is based upon the life-cycle theory of behaviour, which assumes that individuals make their decisions...

We propose a framework for estimating network-driven time-varying systemic risk contributions that is applicable to a high-dimensional financial system. Tail risk dependencies and contributions are estimated based on a penalized two-stage fixed-effects quantile approach, which explicitly links...

We propose a semiparametric measure to estimate systemic interconnectedness across financial institutions based on tail-driven spill-over effects in a ultra-high dimensional framework. Methodologically, we employ a variable selection technique in a time series setting in the context of a...

This paper deals with the impact of the $/Euro exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our main aim is to identify pain thresholds for German exporters. We rely on a non-linear model according to which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR...

We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure for financial companies' contribution to systemic risk given network interdependence between firms' tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we...

This paper considers a general class of stochastic dynamic choice models with discrete and continuous decision variables. This class contains a variety of models that are useful for modeling intertemporal household decisions under risk. Our examples are drawn from the field of development...

We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...