Showing 1 - 10 of 2,430
It is widely accepted that in liberalized electricity markets log-returns display fat-tailed densities. Besides qualitative assessments, so far precise characterizations of the shape of the distribution have been seldom provided. In this work, we characterize the conditional and unconditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328400
In uniform price, sealed-bid day-ahead electricity auctions, the market price is set at the intersection between aggregate demand and supply functions built by a market operator. Each day, just one agent - the marginal generator - owns the market-clearing plant. Day-ahead auctions are moreover...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328513
information contained in the revision history of a given variable. We analyse the forecast performance of eleven widely used … forecast accuracy and precision. The novelty of our study relies on the interpretation of the vintages of a real time data base …-sample periods — substantially increases the forecast performance. More interestingly, our results indicate that augmenting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604892
forecast combinations, which are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting, and compares these with a lesser known alternative …. We also argue that forecast combinations can be interpreted as a restricted form of partial least squares regression ….S. macroeconomic and financial data to forecast, for the United States, CPI inflation, core CPI inflation, industrial production …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284202
, principal components, and Bayesian regressions to a large panel of monthly U.S. macroeconomic data to forecast key variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287052
This paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312576
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014518108
Forecasting hourly electricity prices and their characteristic properties is a core challenge for energy generation companies and trading houses. The short-term marketing and purchase of electricity is usually managed with standardized products traded on different markets and with specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013480163
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141635
Die Preise für Immobilien sind in vielen Ländern in den vergangenen Jahren deutlich gestiegen und es wächst die Sorge, dass sich erneut spekulative Preisblasen bilden. Für politische Entscheidungsträger kann es dabei schwer sein, den richtigen Zeitpunkt für regulierende Eingriffe in den...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012051514