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This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390656
In recent years local projections have become a more and more popular methodology for the estimation of impulse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144235
In this paper, we compare the transmission of a conventional monetary policy shock with that of an unexpected decrease … volatility, our results are two-fold: First, the spread shock works mainly through a boost to consumer wealth growth, while a … conventional monetary policy shock affects real output growth via a broad credit/bank lending channel. Second, both shocks exhibit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611059
We examine the dynamic effects of credit shocks using a large data set of U.S. economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model. The identified credit shocks, interpreted as unexpected deteriorations of credit market conditions, immediately increase credit spreads, decrease rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333628
identified shock has contributed to the business cycle fluctuations. - Business cycle accounting ; dynamic stochastic general …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264738
Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276923
.S. output shock as it does to a corresponding euro area shock. The pivotal role of the U.S.A. in shaping the global business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370102
This paper studies regime dependence in macroeconomic dynamics in the U.S. using a threshold vector autoregressive model in which endogenous regime switches are triggered by the inflation rate. The model separates a high from a low inflation regime with both regimes being strongly persistent....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286376
The topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watsonand Gonzalo-Granger permanent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460507
country are identified, and the corresponding shock propagation channels are computed. We establish the statistical properties … of the cyclical fluctuations and investigate the role of each structural common and country-specific shock in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298787