This paper provides empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the secular price increase in the 16th century is mainly caused by money supply developments as the discovery of new mines in Latin America. First we review price developments for several European countries over the 16th...

The paper proposes two econometric models of inflation for Azerbaijan: one based on monthly data and eclectic, another based on quarterly data and takes into account disequilibrium at the money market. Inflation regression based on monthly data showed that consumer prices dynamics is explained...

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

The paper reconstructs the origins of the quantity theory of money and its applications. Against the background of the history of money, it is shown that the theory was flexible enough to adapt to institutional change and thus succeeded in maintaining its relevance. To this day, it is useful as...

The paper analyses the short-run impact of periods of strong monetary growth on inflation dynamics for 15 industrialised economies. We find that, over a 3-year horizon, the positive link between monetary aggregates and prices holds in approximately fifty percent of the cases. An econometric...

Over the last two centuries, the cross-spectral coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at the frequency ω=0 has exhibited little variation–being, most of the time, close to one–in the U.S., the U.K., and several other countries, thus implying that the fraction...

The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated conditional on the lag order, the current paper also...