Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...

We develop a parsimonious model of the interbank payment system to study congestion and the role of liquidity markets in alleviating congestion. The model incorporates an endogenous instruction arrival process, scale-free topology of payments between banks, fixed total liquidity that limits...

Wachstumsbeschleunigung dank Investitionswende in Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropa Das Wirtschaftswachstum wird sich in den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern 2014 bis 2016 verstärken und durchschnittlich 2% bis 3% erreichen. Wesentlicher Wachstumsimpuls ist eine Wende in den...

Ambivalence in the regulatory definition of capital adequacy for credit risk has recently steered the financial services industry to collateral loan obligations (CLOs) as an important balance sheet management tool. CLOs represent a specialised form of Asset-Backed Securitisation (ABS), with...

We propose a regulatory approach for restricting debt financing as an amplification mechanism across the financial system. A small stylised model illustrates the trade-off between static and time varying limits on leverage in dampening the financial cycle. The policy section proposes its...

We propose a simple network–based methodology for ranking systemically important financial institutions. We view the risks of firms –including both the financial sector and the real economy– as a network with nodes representing the volatility shocks. The metric for the connections of the...

Although financial development is good for long-term growth, not all countries pursue policies that render full financial development. This paper builds on an extensive political economy literature to construct a theoretical model showing that the intensity of opposition to financial development...

We construct a new systemic risk measure that quantifies vulnerability to fire-sale spillovers using detailed regulatory balance sheet data for U.S. commercial banks and repo market data for broker-dealers. Even for moderate shocks in normal times, fire-sale externalities can be substantial. For...

This paper investigates the managing strategies of a bank's liquidity reserve in the broader context of the role of asset-liability management according to the liquidity issues of a banking organisation. Several types of liquidity are presented and how these are interconnected and how they might...

In this paper, calendar seasonality patterns are examined from day-of-the-week effect across weekly patterns, monthly analysis and whole-year seasonal strategies such as Sell in May and Halloween effect. The analysis is done across six indices, DAX, MDAX, SDAX, Eurostoxx 50, Stoxx Europe Mid 200...