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China's business cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS model
Zhang, Yin; Wan, Guanghua - 2004
This paper represents a first attempt to study China’s business cycles using a formal analytical framework, namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that: (a) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (b) the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284541
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Output and inflation responses to credit shocks: are there threshold effects in the euro area?
Calza, Alessandro; Sousa, João - 2005
This paper investigates whether output and inflation respond asymmetrically to credit shocks in the euro area. The methodology, based on a non-linear VAR system, follows work by Balke (2000) for the US. The results reveal evidence of threshold effects related to credit conditions in the economy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604527
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Unconventional U.S. monetary policy: New tools, same channels?
Feldkircher, Martin; Huber, Florian - In: Journal of Risk and Financial Management 11 (2018) 4, pp. 1-31
In this paper, we compare the transmission of a conventional monetary policy shock with that of an unexpected decrease … volatility, our results are two-fold: First, the spread shock works mainly through a boost to consumer wealth growth, while a … conventional monetary policy shock affects real output growth via a broad credit/bank lending channel. Second, both shocks exhibit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611059
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How strongly did the 2007/08 oil price hike contribute to the subsequent recession?
Carstensen, Kai; Elstner, Steffen; Paula, Georg - 2011
VAR based search on these periods, we are able to identify an oil price shock that affects the German production even on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274918
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New evidence, old puzzles: technology shocks and labor market dynamics
Balleer, Almut - 2009
Can the standard search-and-matching labor market model replicate the business cycle fluctuations of the job finding rate and the unemployment rate? In the model, fluctuations are prominently driven by productivity shocks which are commonly interpreted as technology shocks. I estimate different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265223
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Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data
Lucke, Bernd; Haertel, Thomas - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 2 (2008) 2008-10, pp. 1-21
We study the Beaudry and Portier (2006)-hypothesis of delayed-technology diffusion and news-driven business cycles. For German data on TFP and stock prices we find qualitatively similar empirical evidence. Quantitatively, however, an impulse response analysis suggests that a substantial part of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295308
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A Comparative Study on the Role of Stochastic Trends in U.S. Macroeconomic Fluctuations, 1954-1988
Seymen, Atilim - 2008
The paper attempts to provide an appropriate model specification for identifying technology and other macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR framework. The investigation is conducted based on two seminal structural VAR studies by Gali (1999) and King et al. (1991). The models of these studies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297992
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The role of structural common and country-specific shocks in the business cycle dynamics of the G7 countries
Seymen, Atilim; Kappler, Marcus - 2009
country are identified, and the corresponding shock propagation channels are computed. We establish the statistical properties … of the cyclical fluctuations and investigate the role of each structural common and country-specific shock in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298787
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Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union
Dibooglu, Selahattin; Kutan, Ali M. - 2001
This paper examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in two leading transitioneconomy candidates for admission to the European Union (EU), Poland and Hungary. Using a rational expectations, dynamic open economy aggregate supply- aggregate demand model, we consider real oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301247
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Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the U.S.
Gubler, Matthias; Hertweck, Matthias S. - 2011
This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390656