Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 14,247
Cover Image
Quantifying risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts
Knüppel, Malte; Tödter, Karl-Heinz - 2007
macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295862
Cover Image
Stochastische Unternehmensmodelle als Kern innovativer Ratingsysteme
Blum, Ulrich; Gleißner, Werner; Leibbrand, Frank - 2005
to meet their financial obligations. It is based on classical financial-statement approach, a direct inclusion of risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269950
Cover Image
Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors
Knüppel, Malte - 2009
Multi-step-ahead forecasts of forecast uncertainty in practice are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of … recent squared forecast errors, where the number of available past forecast errors decreases one-to-one with the forecast … horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the joint estimation of forecast uncertainty for all horizons in such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299256
Cover Image
Failure of ad valorem and specific tax equivalence under uncertainty
Goerke, Laszlo; Herzberg, Frederik; Upmann, Thorsten - 2012
Applying a framework of perfect competition under uncertainty, we contribute to the discussion of whether or not ad valorem taxes and specific taxes are equivalent. While this equivalence holds without price uncertainty, we show that ad valorem taxes and specific taxes are almost never...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010319759
Cover Image
Prognose des CO2-Zertifikatepreisrisikos
Dannenberg, Henry; Ehrenfeld, Wilfried - 2008
Modeling the price risk of CO2 certificates is one important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to … emissions trading. The paper presents a risk model which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269911
Cover Image
A Note on Updating Forecasts When New Information Arrives between Two Periods
Chen, Pu - 2009
model. Based on this assumption the author drives the optimal updating rule for the forecast of the next period when new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298603
Cover Image
Seeing inside the black box: Using diffusion index methodology to construct factor proxies in largescale macroeconomic time series environments
Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011
In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282831
Cover Image
Diffusion index models and index proxies: Recent results and new directions
Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman - 2011
Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in recent years. One reason for this is that datasets with many variables are increasingly becoming available and being utilized for economic modelling, and another is that common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282837
Cover Image
Some variables are more worthy than others: New diffusion index evidence on the monitoring of key economic indicators
Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman - 2011
Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic indicators is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282848
Cover Image
Survey of models on demand, customer base-line and demand response and their relationships in the power market
Heshmati, Almas - 2012
The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284018