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This Policy Brief introduces the Gini Trade Index (GTI) as a new trade synthetic key performance indicator capable of … replicates the well-known features of the traditional Gini Index, a widely used metric for the skewness of several socioeconomic … indicators, in particular income inequality. The Policy Brief calculates the Gini Trade Index for all EU member states and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014560170
This paper constructs a Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEINDEX) that captures the contextual feature of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266685
We formulate a simple theoretical model of a banking industry that we use to identify and construct theory-based measures of systemic bank shocks (SBS). These measures differ from 'banking crisis' (BC) indicators employed in many empirical studies, which are constructed using primarily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272761
The financial crisis of 200709 has highlighted the importance of developments in financial conditions for real economic activity. The authors estimate the effect of current and past shocks to financial variables on U.S. GDP growth by constructing two growthbased financial conditions indexes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010289690
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011288126
The yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds (or break-even inflation rates, BEIR) is a fundamental indicator of inflation expectations (and associated premia). This paper investigates which macroeconomic and financial variables explain BEIRs. We evaluate a large number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605042
We separate changes of the federal funds rate into two components; one reflects the Fed's superior forecasts about the state of the economy and the other component reflects the Fed's reaction to the public's forecast about the state of the economy. Romer and Romer (2000) found that the Fed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293721
Empirical evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is in-conclusive and its validity widely debated. Using a cointegrated VAR model of US treasury yields, this paper extends a common approach to test the theory. If, as we find, spreads between two yields are non-stationary,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295270
Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298283
From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298296