This paper investigates whether the real oil price has an impact on the real exchange rates of three main oil-exporting countries: Norway, Russia and Saudi Arabia. We create our measure of the real effective exchange rates for Norway and Saudi Arabia (1980-2006) and for Russia (1995-2006),...

Cluster policy has become a method of choice for policymakers in many countries. Promoting strong localized industries is an appealing perspective for practitioners, as it can be seen as a way to anchor economic activity in regions in an era of globalization. If cluster policy is successful, it...

The transition from an oil-based to a knowledge-based economy requires that the Saudi population dramatically increases its level of human capital. This paper argues that noncognitive skills may be a bottleneck in the formation of human capital and proposes a policy to indirectly strengthen...

Why did OPEC not cut oil production in the wake of 2014's price fall? This study aims at aiding the mostly qualitative discussion with quantitative evidence from computing quarterly partial market equilibria Q4 2011 – Q4 2015 under present short-term profit maximisation and different...

The coronavirus pandemic has affected the Gulf countries in a particular way. In addition to the direct consequences of the pandemic, the spread of the coronavirus has led to a collapse in demand for the Gulf countries' most important source of revenue: oil. Its price, which had fallen initially...

Die Corona-Krise trifft die Golfstaaten auf besondere Weise. Neben den direkten Folgen hat die Pandemie die Nachfrage nach der wichtigsten Einnahmequelle einbrechen lassen, dem Erdöl. Der ohnehin durch den jüngsten Preiskrieg zwischen Saudi-Arabien und Russland gedrückte Ölpreis stürzte im...

If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has...

We propose a new time series model aimed at forecasting crude oil prices. The proposed specification is an unobserved components model with an asymmetric cyclical component. The asymmetric cycle is defined as a sine-cosine wave where the frequency of the cycle depends on past oil price...

There is an increasing tension between the Iranian Government and the west on an increasingly likely European oil embargo and the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. The main question is: What will happen to the international oil prices in the case of shocks in the flow of Iranian oil...