We propose a method for indentifying discretionary fiscal policy with real time data. The starting point is the observation that automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy depends on the information that policy makers have in real time. We approximate the...

Weltweit werden etwa 3 Billionen US-Dollar staatlicher Hilfen ausgegeben, um den Absturz der Weltwirtschaft abzubremsen. Dieser Nachfrageschub von 4,7 Prozent des Welteinkommens hat zuallererst die Aufgabe, die Spirale gestrichener Investitionspläne, reduzierter Produktion, gesunkener...

We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark Smets-Wouters (Smets and Wouters, 2007) New Keynesian model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government capital and distortionary...

This paper is focused on the options for reducing the U.S. fiscal deficit in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The first part of the paper is devoted to an assessment of the economic outlook and the impact of the financial crisis on the medium-term fiscal balance of the federal government....

Die Weltkonjunktur zeigt sich im Frühsommer 2003 leicht aufwärtsgerichtet. Zu einer durchgreifenden Erholung ist es bisher noch nicht gekommen. Belastend wirkten insbesondere die Irak-Krise, der zwischenzeitliche Höhenflug des Erdölpreises, der Ausbruch der Lungenkrankheit SARS sowie die...

Most recent discussions of deflation seem to overlook the main dangers posed by a deflationary economy and appear to offer superficial solutions. In this brief, the authors argue that, barring drastic changes in asset and output prices, deflation itself is not the main problem, but rather the...

The stagnation of the economy in the Euro area since 2000 is closely connected to the dominance of purely long-run supply-side oriented policies in the Euro area. While exports and profits soared, domestic demand has been weak. The neglect of cyclical and demand factors appears to be the major...

The paper analyses theoretically what role fiscal councils could play and surveys empirically the activities of existing councils. Case studies of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility are done. It is concluded that fiscal councils should be advisory,...

President Joe Biden faces some political and economic headwinds in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections this year. Current economic challenges include historically high inflation rates and signs of an impending recession. [...] This paper gives a critical overview of the political and economic...

The response in 2008-09 to the global financial crisis was in many ways a high water mark for transatlantic policy coordination. The major economies of the EU and the US rapidly agreed on a series of measures to limit the crisis. However, the common approach has since unraveled. This paper...