We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870-2016. Most nonlin-ear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify...

The article shows by various examples how consumers of statistical information may be confused when this information is presented in terms of conditional probabilities. It also shows how this confusion helps others to lie with statistics, and it suggests how either confusion or lies can be...

Ende Oktober 2018 hat der Sachverständigenrat für Verbraucherfragen das Gutachten "Verbrauchergerechtes Scoring" vorgelegt. Es geht dabei um die sich ausbreitende Praxis, immer mehr Aspekte des Verhaltens der Bürger durch "Scores" vorherzusagen oder zu steuern. Scoring ist durch eine Reihe...

Informed decision making in medicine, defined as basing one’s decision on the best current medical evidence, requires both informed physicians and informed patients. In cancer screening, however, studies document that these prerequisites are not yet met. Many physicians do not know or...

This study provides the first representative analysis of error estimations and willingness to accept errors in a Western country (Germany) with regards to algorithmic decision-making systems (ADM). We examine people's expectations about the accuracy of algorithms that predict credit default,...

Bundeswirtschaftsministerin Brigitte Zypries hat beklagt, dass die Gesundheitswirtschaft zu den am wenigsten digitalisierten Branchen gehört, obwohl schon im Januar 2016 ein E-Health-Gesetz in Kraft getreten ist. Die Digitalisierung umfasst dabei verschiedene Bereiche: von der elektronischen...

This research evaluates Minimal Economic Knowledge (MEK) in Germany - that is, basic knowledge of economic facts, concepts, and causal relationships needed for understanding and successfully participating in the economy. It is addressed to gain an understanding of the level of Minimal Economic...

Defensive decision making occurs when a manager ranks an option as the best for the organization yet deliberately chooses a second-best option that protects him or herself against negative consequences. We study 950 managers in a public administration to analyze the frequency and causes of...

Numerous health insurers offer bonus programmes that score customers’ health behaviour, and car insurers offer telematics tariffs that score driving behaviour. In many countries, however, only a minority of customers participate in these programmes. In a population-representative survey of...