In this paper, we document that households’ consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings – even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households...

In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures crucially depend on their expected earnings – even after controlling for realized earnings, wealth and time-invariant unobserved characteristics such as permanent income and over-confidence. To explain this evidence, we...

This paper investigates whether assuming that households possess advance information on their income shocks helps to overcome the difficulty of standard models to understand consumption insurance in the US. As our main result, we find that the quantitative relevance of advance information...

We investigate whether US households possess advance information about their future income and what this means for consumption insurance. Based on insights from a theoretical model, we propose a new test to detect advance information, which requires only panel data on consumption and income....

Consumer credit spreads significantly impact consumption and asset dynamics, affecting indebted households' spending behavior and the income sensitivity of consumption. Analyzing Danish data, we find that elevated credit spreads reduce consumption of indebted households. Our results suggest that...

This paper formally compares the fit of various versions of the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty, relying on a simple Bayesian empirical framework. The models differ in the degree of households' heterogeneity, with a focus on the role of preferences. For every specification,...

This paper analyzes the welfare costs of business cycles when workers face uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk. In accordance with the previous literature, this paper decomposes labor income risk into an aggregate and an idiosyncratic component, but in contrast to the previous...

This paper applies Canova JAE 1994 methodology to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis for the Aiyagari QJE 1994 economy. This is a calibrated GE model with incomplete markets and uninsurable income risk, designed to quantify the size of precautionary savings and the degree of wealth...

This paper implements a simple Bayesian approach to quantitatively study the Hansen and Imrohoroglu (1992) economy, a calibrated GE model with uninsurable employment risk, designed to assess the optimal replacement rate for a public Unemployment Insurance scheme. The results of this sensitivity...

This paper considers the macroeconomic implications of a set of empirical studies finding a high degree of dispersion in preference heterogeneity. It develops a model with both uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk and risk aversion heterogeneity to quantify their effects on wealth inequality....